FVI Product Prioritization Matrix
Score every initiative the same way. Stop arguing about priority.
Scoring · 5 min / item
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FVI = (Expected $ Value × Confidence) ÷ Effort (eng-weeks)
- Inputs
- Expected value ($) · Confidence (0–1) · Effort (eng-weeks)
- Output
- Dollars per engineering week, ranked
- When to use
- When the backlog has 80 items and three execs each have a different top 5.
- Replaces
- RICE debates where 'Impact' hides every assumption.
FVI — Forced-Value Index — is a prioritization technique that multiplies expected value by confidence and divides by effort. Unlike RICE, FVI forces a confidence haircut: a 'huge' opportunity with 20% confidence drops below a smaller bet you actually know how to ship.
The formula
FVI = (Expected Value × Confidence) ÷ Effort. Expected value in dollars. Confidence as a 0–1 multiplier. Effort in engineering weeks. The output is dollars per engineering week, comparable across initiatives.
Why it beats RICE
RICE bundles reach and impact into a single 'I' score that hides assumptions. FVI exposes the dollar number, which forces the room to debate the input — not the rank.
Reading the matrix
Plot FVI on the Y axis, effort on the X. Top-left quadrant ships next quarter. Bottom-right is the dead zone — kill or de-scope.